Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), recently gave a presentation at the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors (HGAR). He summarized what’s been happening in both the residential and commercial markets. He wound up his presentation with a positive forecast 2024.

As an economist, he gave a lot context for his prediction, that mortgage rates will slide back to the mid 6% range by the second quarter of ‘24. This will bring back some of the buyers that were shut out when rates were higher. Many home owners have put off selling their properties due to the higher rates; some even holding onto property they no longer need or use. These sellers are looking for a drop in rates to motivate them to get back into the market.

His message for the Feds – “Stop Raising Rates”. He said NAR & the National Association of Home Builders sent a letter to the Federal Reserve requesting a pause in interest rate hikes in order to see if inflation will fall on its own. Just give it time.

He pointed to the pending commercial mortgage market reset that is coming over the next year. There are approximately 2,000 smaller community banks whose balance sheets are largely commercial mortgages with five-year terms. The properties that secure these mortgages have been hurt badly by the pandemic as the need for office and retail space has fallen tremendously.

I am looking forward to the market Dr. Yun predicts as the current one is quite difficult for most.